Modeling the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Fritillaria imperialis under climate change scenarios and using three general circulation model in Iran

Climate change may pose challenges to the conservation of plant species such as the Fritillaria imperialis that have narrow geographical distribution. In this study, the modeling suitable habitats of F.imperialis in Iran was done in the current condition and under climate change (2050). For this purpose, 78 species presence data along with 12 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physiographic and land cover/land use variables were used. We used the ensemble modelling consisting of seven Species Distribution Models (SDMs) was coupled with three general circulation model and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario. Our findings show that estimated suitable habitats of the species cover about 7.69% of the study area, while approximately 9.08% of these suitable areas are covered by conservation areas. Due to climate change, the least and most decline of suitable habitats 46.1% to 77.37% may occur in 2050, respectively. Minimum temperature of the coldest month, elevation, and annual precipitation, had the greatest effects on the species’ distribution in the study area. In keeping with the results, F. imperialis is predicted to shift toward higher elevation under climate change. The accuracy of the maps was assessed and functioning of all models was acceptable (AUC> 0.87 and TSS> 0.75). The suitable habitat identified could be considered for the adoption of management and conservation approaches, including re-introduction and the establishment of new protected areas in order to protect F. imperialis against the expected climate change impacts.